I read The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. I got the book out from the library. Its an extremely popular finance book, and many people are on the library waiting list for it.
His theory is influenced by the late polymath economist Karl Popper, who basically said that if 100 white swans land on a lake, this still doesn't mean that the next swan to land will be white. It could be a black swan. The point is, no matter how consistent the past has been, anything different can happen in the future. Taleb likes to see himself as a philosopher, who sees the way we think about events as our biggest strength or weakness.
Taleb says that learning knowledge from books can make you more stupid, because you then rely on that knowledge as though it is guaranteed. He says your greatest knowledge may be in all the books you will never read.
He mentioned the legendary Long Term Capital hedge fund, which went bust even though it was staffed by economic geniuses. Their plan was destroyed by the emergence of a black swan event, i.e many markets failing at once, which they could never have predicted.
My criticisms of the book is that it is blatantly too long. "Anything can happen," that simple point is retold in different ways again and again in the book, and I think there is no way this book deserves the popularity it has enjoyed because of this. Also, the bibliography has roughly 1000 books in it, and I don't believe he read all those books, but is instead trying to play mind games with the reader, by showing that trying to read many books is futile. He says that planning anything, needs to take into account the very real possibility of unforeseeable black swan events.
The book is one simple concept repeated incessantly throughout the book. The core concept is simply that you can never predict the future, and anything can happen. He says it's not worth planning for the future, but I've read lots of advice by other rich people who say you should plan. I don't think life should be left to chance. I don't think this is a good book, because of its one point, and its repetition of that one point. Taleb presents an interesting take on random events, but there is nothing major in this book, just cheap, obvious psychobabble. Truly a case of the emperors new clothes. I score this book 2 stars out of 5, and part of me worries that this score may be too high.
His theory is influenced by the late polymath economist Karl Popper, who basically said that if 100 white swans land on a lake, this still doesn't mean that the next swan to land will be white. It could be a black swan. The point is, no matter how consistent the past has been, anything different can happen in the future. Taleb likes to see himself as a philosopher, who sees the way we think about events as our biggest strength or weakness.
Taleb says that learning knowledge from books can make you more stupid, because you then rely on that knowledge as though it is guaranteed. He says your greatest knowledge may be in all the books you will never read.
He mentioned the legendary Long Term Capital hedge fund, which went bust even though it was staffed by economic geniuses. Their plan was destroyed by the emergence of a black swan event, i.e many markets failing at once, which they could never have predicted.
My criticisms of the book is that it is blatantly too long. "Anything can happen," that simple point is retold in different ways again and again in the book, and I think there is no way this book deserves the popularity it has enjoyed because of this. Also, the bibliography has roughly 1000 books in it, and I don't believe he read all those books, but is instead trying to play mind games with the reader, by showing that trying to read many books is futile. He says that planning anything, needs to take into account the very real possibility of unforeseeable black swan events.
The book is one simple concept repeated incessantly throughout the book. The core concept is simply that you can never predict the future, and anything can happen. He says it's not worth planning for the future, but I've read lots of advice by other rich people who say you should plan. I don't think life should be left to chance. I don't think this is a good book, because of its one point, and its repetition of that one point. Taleb presents an interesting take on random events, but there is nothing major in this book, just cheap, obvious psychobabble. Truly a case of the emperors new clothes. I score this book 2 stars out of 5, and part of me worries that this score may be too high.
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